Alternate Spellcasting for Sorcerers

[b]Tux and/or anyone else who's good at math, please correct me and/or slap me if I'm wrong with this. Even if you're not good at math, please post your comments on how you think the power level pans out. More posts coming soon.[/b]

We'll start with a level 1 sorcerer under your system. At this level, the "minimum spell strength" doesn't really apply (it will be hard as hell to mathematically represent when it does). So I'll just throw around a few probabilities. Simple, right?

OK, so Nancy the Necromancer is going to throw around a few magic missiles (she didn't restrict Evocation, apparently).

Chance of getting off one spell on the first try: 60%.
Chance of getting off the second spell (not in a row): 55%.
Third is 50%, fourth is 45%, and so on, until the chance decreases to 0% for her thirteenth spell, meaning the maximum amount of level 1 spells she could *possibly* cast is 12.

However, if we throw consecutive successful spellcasting into the mix, things get a little more complicated.

The chance of successfully casting two in a row is 33%.
Three in a row is 16.5%.
Four in a row (the amount a normal level 1 sorc with one bonus spell could cast with no problems) is a measly 7.425%.

At this stage of the analysis, this is what scares me. A normal level 1 sorcerer with one bonus spell can fire off four magic missiles in a row, shrug, and walk off for a bite to eat and a mug of ale at the local tavern. This one could potentially fire off twelve, but the chance of getting even four when she *really* needs them (i.e. in just about any serious combat) is pretty small (although above the 5% cutoff for the Rare Event Rule of Inferential Statistics :P ). So, so far, it looks like the overall power has decreased.

Just to throw out a few more numbers- if you take a sorc with a +3 Cha mod, the four-in-a-row chance improves to 10.725%, and with a +4 Cha mod, it's 15%. If you happen to have a racial adjustment and luck out with a 20 Cha/+5 mod, it's a 20.475% chance to cast four in a row, but the standard sorc of this level can cast five (with 2 bonus spells). This 20 Cha one has a 11.26% chance of doing that. Oh, do note that as the Cha mod increases, one more spell can be cast. So aforementioned 20 Cha sorcerer can *possibly* cast 15 level 1 spells in a day, although once the chance gets down to 25% or so, as a player I would probably rather shoot the enemy with my crossbow.

Let me just point out that I *really* like this idea. It's very cool, and matches the flavor of the PHB sorcerer's description way more than WotC's rules do. One of the coolest variant rule ideas I've seen, I'll even say. However, the big issue I pointed out two paragraphs above stands. For example, one of OPnPW's most illustrious DMs, if not the most illustrious (I'm talking about Saber, not myself :P) runs a campaign in which combat, in my experience so far, isn't extremely commonplace, but when it does occur it's going to be pretty difficult to win, with characters burning Luck points left and right to foil his bad guys' plans, stats, and rolls (which reminds me- would you allow Luck to be spent on these? I'm assuming so. :) ). Anyway, my point is that, in CotV, when you need a spell, you [b]need[/b] a spell. And you don't need a decent chance of it not succeeding or not giving you as much power as you can get from it.

That's all I have for now, but I'm working on analyzing higher level characters. I plan on doing a level 4 comparison (it's what we are in CotV anyway :P ), and probably some character around level 10 and one with 9th level spells. I might throw another one in between those. We'll see how those turn out. Like I said, these are just statistical analyses, not a reflection on how good your idea/system is. I'm pretty damn sure they are correctly calculated, though.

[i][Before you ask, yes, I do have way too much free time. Although this took me about 15-20 minutes max.][/i]

Level four character analysis.

I'm sticking with the elite array Sorcerer from pg. 124-125 in the DMG, so at this level we now have a 16 CHA.

Standard sorcerer of this level gets 6/7/4 spells per day. Chances for casting 2nd level spells, although they correspond to some numbers up above:

1st spell- 65%
2nd consecutive- 39%
3rd consecutive- 21.45%
4th consecutive- 10.725%
5th consecutive (just for kicks)- 4.83%

Not too surprising compared to my results above for the 1st level caster. But let's look at the chances for 1st-level spells now. I'll only post the probabilities for certain key numbers, for sanity's sake.

1st spell- 70%
4 consecutive spells- 15%
7 consecutive spells- 1.35%

Pretty small chance of getting 7 consecutive 1st level spells (what a standard, 16 CHA, 4th level sorc could do). Catch is, those probabilities are only for the bare minimum required caster level, when in reality a sorcerer must beat the DC by 3 to get it to cast at its maximum level. Let's take the ubiquitous magic missile once again, so that we only need to beat the DC by 2 in order to cast it for 2d4+2 damage.

1st spell (to beat DC by 2)- 60%
2nd consecutive, same as above- 33%
3rd consecutive, as above- 16.5%
4th consecutive, as above- 7.425%

Remind you of any previous numbers? You're right- they're the exact same probabilities as those of the first level caster with CHA mod +2.

What about the 7th consecutive one, as a normal sorc could cast? The probability of getting that off is .312%. Not 3.12%, [b]point[/b] 312 percent. So, with probabilities like that, it's even more important than normal to use all of your 2nd level slots before you move on to 1st level ones.

One thing I have observed is that the curve should change quite a bit once we get up into high level characters, because of the prevalence of stat-boosters. Thus, I think I might do an 18th-level sorc next, just for kicks. I'd also like to run a few actual game tests with the system, just to see how it plays and if it's how my statistics indicate.

One other note. This system rocks non-combat spells when not under pressure or anything, because you can effectively take 20 on the check (try over and over again until it succeeds, which is what taking 20 actually means). So even if your sorc has cast 11 spells out of 12 possible and the DC for the next spell is 22, you can cast that 12th buffing spell, Identify, Disguise Self or something..... eventually. I'm sure you were both aware of this, just pointing it out for anyone else.

i don't like that system at all. when you're in a game, how many times do you want to roll a damn dice to take up more time? hell, battles last long enough, and while they're fun, a big one usually takes more then half a session.

[quote="ArchDevil"]i don't like that system at all. when you're in a game, how many times do you want to roll a damn dice to take up more time? hell, battles last long enough, and while they're fun, a big one usually takes more then half a session.[/quote]

Heh, not to mention the amount of time I'm putting in to see if it's balanced, lmao.

But honestly, it doesn't add *that* much more time, at least when applied to our flavor of online gaming over OPnPW, although the DM's having to keep track of the current DC for each spell level and such could be a pain.

EDIT: OK, I'm too tired to crunch the numbers for the 18th-level sorc. I'm going to sleep, and I'll do it sometime tomorrow morning/afternoonish.

A closing note before I go, and again, this is based solely on what I've seen so far, but I feel it applies. Game balance has always been one of the most difficult obstacles I've had to deal with, not only in D&D but in all RPGs I've run as a DM/GM/ST. The thing with this system is that it adds even more considerable variation and randomness, which makes encounters harder to balance for a party containing a sorcerer that uses this rule. Yes, I know that any other class depends on its attack and damage rolls, and those are random. However, every class has tangible, measurable benefits for gaining levels, which makes it easier to balance encounters based on their expected contribution to the battle. With a rule like this, you have no idea whether the sorcerer is going to completely rock and get off a lot of powerful spells, or only get off a few spells when they're necessary- or even none at all. While, I must admit, it is pretty cool, it would make things quite a bit harder on the DM. Which might be why we have the silly and illogical Spells Per Day system instead. :lol:

Please comment if you read this. I want my position to be attacked. Heck, maybe I'm not even taking the right approach to evaluating this system. 8)

it'd make things a bit harder on the player too.. now its a random (altho favoured) chance to see if you can even cast your spells

I think you have a very interesting point, Striker. Admittedly, Saber and I didn't exactly playtest these rules; we simply matched them against various instances of the Attack Bonus/Armour Class system, and concluded that they seemed accurate enough. We had originally planned on giving them a "live fire" test in CotV on Wednesday. But after I saw your posts, I jumped on OPNPW and made some test rolls of my own, with charisma mods from +3 to +6. Now I'm not so sure we should take that chance in the game as it occurs.

When rolling, I found that the results compared with Striker's calculations accurately. Saber and I of course took into consideration that not everyone would roll the DC each time, but after several periods of no luck at all (3-6 failures in a row--that's 3-6 rounds in combat, and that's just deadly), I ceded that Striker found a weakness that we never really bothered to investigate in great detail. (Of course, it was probably Will's fault).

Apparently, this variant definitely needs some modification, if not a complete overhaul. While I still like the idea of a specific and escalating Difficulty Check, it's become really obvious to me that a Sorcerer's Charisma modifier alone isn't going to pull the hat out of the rabbit, at least not for all Sorcerers.

Thank you very much, Striker, for helping to point out the difficulties in the system :). Constructive criticism is always welcome, and in this case it probably saved Detra from a premature nap on the sea floor or worse :roll: .

Saber and I will confer at the earliest opportunity to see if we still can't make a more realistic variant of spontaneous spellcasting out of this quagmire.

(P.S. - Spells Per Day *is* silly and illogical for sorcerers, in my opinion! :P )

[color=darkred]Thought of possibly a sloppy solution.

Add your remaining 'spells per day' as a bonus to the roll. So, say you had a max of 4 castings of 1st lvl spells per day, and a 16 charisma. The first spell you cast would have a +7 to the DC 11, the 2nd a +6 to the DC 12, so on, until you run out of your 'normally allotted' spells per day. Then, you don't gain any bonus.

Striker, I'm at work. Number crunch those, and see how that turns out.[/color]

-Gah, the numbers for this post are wrong. I don't feel like updating them, so removed for now.-

[color=darkred]Mmm... Definately an improvement. I've already thought of another way to work in some more bonuses, but I'll fully think it through.

What I was thinking is adding a bonus to the check. You are only allowed so much of a bonus per day. The bonus total would be double your level.

So, like, you could choose to give a +2 to the check or split it into two +1s. Striker... This gets a lot more complicated. Do you know how to get fully accurate numbers with this addition? If not, I'll do it when I get home. There's a lot of variables with this addition.[/color]

[quote="Saber"][color=darkred]Striker... This gets a lot more complicated. Do you know how to get fully accurate numbers with this addition? If not, I'll do it when I get home. There's a lot of variables with this addition.[/color][/quote]

I'll let you do it. :)

EDIT: One thing I would still keep in mind, though, is the power of a higher-level character under this system. I never got the chance to do a level 18 build, but Anouri and I pretty much agree that a high-level character is going to be powerful, maybe even more powerful than a normal Sorcerer of that level... It's an exaggerated curve.

[color=darkred]Because I'm a bad employee, I did a little already... That is, as much as I could do on paper (this requires a spreadsheet).

Assuming our 1st lvl caster from above, here's the chance of casting your first spell successfully, and then the chance of casting a 2nd spell in a row successfully:

1st - 95%
2nd - 84.20% (rounded)

These are a lot better... I think, with a spreadsheet with 'fully' accurate percents, this may be the ticket.[/color]

[color=darkred]Ahahahaha! Work has Excel... :D[/color]

-baleeted because I'm a moron-

[color=darkred]I didn't diss anything... Huh?[/color]

-baleeted because I'm a moron-

[color=darkred]No no... Accurate percents for this new idea. My percents are off, which is why I said it. I figured your percents already were. I'm sorry... :([/color]

LOL. Okay. No problem, I didn't take it personally or anything. :lol:

[color=darkred]Update:

This is to hard to do with interruptions. I'll do when I get home. :([/color]

[b]Note. Just realized I made a mistake with my calculations in Part Zwei. Once the "normal maximum" of 4 spells is cast, the drop-off will only be 5% per spell, not 10% as I had it. I'll fix that later.[/b]

Once again I am bored and have nothing to do, so I decided I'd test my earlier assumption about what a high-level caster under this system would look like.

So let's assume an 18th-level sorcerer, Charisma 28 (I don't think that's too unrealistic for this level, including enhancement bonuses, stat ups and such). Not using the most recent addition that Saber hasn't tested yet, just the +cha and +remaining spells.

This sorcerer has the following spells per day with the bonus spells: 6/9/8/8/8/8/7/7/6/4

So for 9th level spells...

1st spell- 100% (+9 stat, +4 for remaining spells, +13 beats DC 11)
2nd cons.- 100% (+9 stat, +3 for remaining spells, +12 beats DC 12)
3rd cons.- 95% (+9 stat, +2 for remaining spells, +11 vs. DC 13)
4th cons.- 80.75% (would be an 85% chance on its own)
5th cons.- 64.6% (would be a 75% chance on its own)

Now... here's the kicker. This 18th-level sorcerer, who could normally only cast 4 9th-level spells per day, can potentially cast 19 of them. The only power tradeoff is that the 3rd and 4th spells have a slight chance of not succeeding, but this isn't too much of a drop compared to the ability to cast as many spells as it can eventually. For example, the 10th spell has a 50% chance of succeeding. Not that great, but it beats a 0% chance. And if we're using the "bonus caster level" revision Saber proposed above, you can guarantee success of the 3rd and 4th spells with only minor spending of those points. You can probably also guarantee success out to the 7th or 8th spell, but I didn't do the math on that.

I'm going to stop now, I think I've highlighted a pretty serious problem that I was trying to point out before (the curve to higher level spells) and I don't feel like doing the math for the lower level spells with an 18th-level sorc. I also have no idea how this system is going to mess with metamagic.

[color=darkred]Mmmm... Ouchies. Even though you're calculating 1s as successes, I still see your point. That IS pretty insane... Hmm, back to the drawing board, perhaps.[/color]

[quote="Saber"][color=darkred]Mmmm... Ouchies. Even though you're calculating 1s as successes, I still see your point. That IS pretty insane... Hmm, back to the drawing board, perhaps.[/color][/quote]

Didn't know 1 would be an auto-fail, I was calculating it in the form of a skill check. I didn't use the -5 though, so that would apply and bump the 100%s down to 95%s. Still, my point stands.

How about building the DC off of the spells level, not the spells level compared to the casters level. Then apply bonuses based on spells per day. Additionally, after you use up your 4th level 9 spell, the bonus spells per day should inquire a - penalty to the cha mod for the check.